Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Perugia, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 June 2026, Friday


	Pablo Llamas Ruiz		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.62	2.20	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.58	2.30
	1.65	2.39
	1.59	2.24	Watch
	1.62	2.20	Watch
	1.63	2.15	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↑ (1.53)	2.25 ↓ (2.35)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pablo Llamas Ruiz
58.3%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.6%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.3%

45.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pablo Llamas Ruiz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pablo Llamas Ruiz than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
32%	0%	68%

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 25 users predict this event. Llamas Ruiz will win (votes: 8 - 32%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 17 - 68%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Merida Aguilar: 49.7% – 86.3%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Llamas Ruiz (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Llamas Ruiz is ranked ATP: 122. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 86.

Llamas Ruiz is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Merida Aguilar's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Merida Aguilar may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Llamas Ruiz will hold a modest advantage in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 2.35 are the expected chance of winning is 39.43%, but this team recently wins 45% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pablo Llamas Ruiz
ATP Challenger
03.06.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Jacopo Vasami	2:0 ✺
01.06.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Michele Ribecai	2:1 ✺
ATP Roland Garros
24.05.26	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Thiago Augustin Tirante	1:3 ✺
22.05.26	Vilius Gaubas - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
20.05.26	Ugo Blanchet - Pablo Llamas Ruiz	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWLWW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
03.06.26	Liam Broady - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
01.06.26	Gianluca Cadenasso - Daniel Merida Aguilar	Cadenasso G. Retired ✺
ATP Roland Garros
25.05.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ben Shelton	0:3 ✺
ATP Challenger
13.05.26	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
ATP Roma
07.05.26	Nikoloz Basilashvili - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 W?LLL

Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide