Match Info

ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Denia, clay - Quarter-finals

Date: 24 July 2026, Friday


	Pavel Lagutin		Lorenzo Angelini

	1	2
			Watch
	1.83	1.83
	1.84	1.86	Watch
	1.97	1.85
	1.84	1.84	Watch
	1.95	1.82
	1.88	1.80	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↑ (1.83)	1.83 (1.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.00

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pavel Lagutin
49.3%

Lorenzo Angelini
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.2%

57.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pavel Lagutin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.7%)

Lorenzo Angelini has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Pavel Lagutin than the current prediction. (-7.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Pavel Lagutin that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Angelini than the current prediction. (+7.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Lorenzo Angelini could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Pavel Lagutin - Lorenzo Angelini Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Lagutin is ranked ATP: 710. Angelini is ranked ATP: 575.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Angelini may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Angelini - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pavel Lagutin
ITF Tournaments
23.07.26	Ignacio Parisca - Pavel Lagutin	Parisca I. Retired ✺
22.07.26	Xavier Ferrer Mateo - Pavel Lagutin	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.07.26	Pavel Lagutin - Alejo Sanchez Quilez	0:2 ✺
13.07.26	Takuya Kumasaka - Pavel Lagutin	0:2 ✺
12.07.26	Pavel Lagutin - Nicolas Tepmahc	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 ?WLWW
- Lorenzo Angelini
ITF Tournaments
23.07.26	Mateo Luis Alvarez Sarmiento - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Andres Santamarta Roig - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.07.26	Max Alcala Gurri - Lorenzo Angelini	2:0 ✺
13.07.26	Inaki Montes De La Torre - Lorenzo Angelini	0:2 ✺
05.07.26	Luca Potenza - Lorenzo Angelini	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.9 WWLWL

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