Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Villena - Qualification, hard - Final

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Philip Henning		Ivan Marrero Curbelo

	1	2
			Watch
	1.26	3.40
	1.26	3.5
	1.26	3.47	Watch
	1.26	3.8
	1.26	3.49	Watch
	1.26	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.26 ↓ (1.45)	3.53 ↑ (2.58)

The most likely Over/Under: 20.50

The best margin for this event is 5.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philip Henning
73.7%

Ivan Marrero Curbelo
26.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

61.9%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philip Henning has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Philip Henning's performance.

Ivan Marrero Curbelo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Ivan Marrero Curbelo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philip Henning than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Philip Henning that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ivan Marrero Curbelo than the current prediction. (+11.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Ivan Marrero Curbelo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Philip Henning - Ivan Marrero Curbelo Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Henning (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Henning is ranked ATP: 266., and Marrero Curbelo is ranked ATP: 365..

In recent outings, Henning has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Marrero Curbelo has struggled for form in recent encounters (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Henning may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Bookmakers give the edge to Henning for this game.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Philip Henning - the odds 1.45 are the expected chance of winning is 64.04%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philip Henning
ATP Challenger
04.10.26	Philip Henning - Thijs Boogaard	2:1 ✺
30.09.26	Philip Henning - Tristan Schoolkate	0:2 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.09.26	Alec Deckers - Philip Henning	2:0 ✺
25.09.26	Robin Bertrand - Philip Henning	0:2 ✺
24.09.26	Tomas Curras Abasolo - Philip Henning	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLLWW
- Ivan Marrero Curbelo
ATP Challenger
04.10.26	Joshua Sheehy - Ivan Marrero Curbelo	1:2 ✺
27.09.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Luca Potenza	1:2 ✺
07.09.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Maks Kasnikowski	1:2 ✺
31.08.26	Oskari Paldanius - Ivan Marrero Curbelo	Marrero Curbelo I. Retired ✺
26.08.26	Ivan Marrero Curbelo - Andres Andrade	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 WLL?L

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