Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lincoln, hard - Final

Date: 19 October 2025, Sunday


	Rafael Jodar		Martin Damm

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
			Watch
	1.44	2.92
	1.48	2.56	Watch
	1.46	2.61	Watch
	1.65	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.65)	2.54 ↑ (2.1)

The best margin for this event is 3.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rafael Jodar
62.8%

Martin Damm
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

56%

44%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57%

43%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rafael Jodar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rafael Jodar's performance.

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Martin Damm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rafael Jodar than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rafael Jodar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Martin Damm could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rafael Jodar - Martin Damm Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -3 Games - Jodar (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Damm (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Rafael Jodar will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Jodar (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Damm (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Jodar is ranked ATP: 283. Damm is ranked ATP: 240.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Jodar is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rafael Jodar
ATP Challenger
18.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Patrick Kypson	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Brandon Holt - Rafael Jodar	0:2 ✺
16.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Max Wiskandt	2:0 ✺
14.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Cannon Kingsley	2:0 ✺
04.10.25	Rafael Jodar - Michael Zheng	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 WWWWL
- Martin Damm
ATP Challenger
18.10.25	Johannus Monday - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Martin Damm - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
16.10.25	Martin Damm - Oliver Tarvet	2:0 ✺
14.10.25	Martin Damm - Nicolas Arseneault	2:1 ✺
30.09.25	Olle Wallin - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WWWWL

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