Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Pau, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Where to Watch on TV:


Slovakia	Arena sport 2


	Raphael Collignon		Martin Damm

	1	2
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.57	2.27	Watch
	1.6	2.4
	1.59	2.24	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.58	2.23	Watch
	1.6	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.83)	2.27 ↑ (1.85)

The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Raphael Collignon
58.9%

Martin Damm
41.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.2%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.7%

45.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Raphael Collignon has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Raphael Collignon's performance.

Martin Damm has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Martin Damm might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Raphael Collignon than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13.3%	0%	86.7%

Raphael Collignon - Martin Damm Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Damm (1.48) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +3 Games - Damm (1.45) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Martin Damm will win (13 of 15 users predict this - 86.67%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.47% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Martin Damm will win (7 of 8 users predict this - 87.5%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Collignon (votes: 1 - 10%). Damm (votes: 9 - 90%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Collignon is ranked ATP: 69. Damm is ranked ATP: 130.

Collignon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Damm is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Collignon may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Martin Damm - the odds 1.85 are the expected chance of winning is 49.77%, but this team recently wins 60% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Raphael Collignon
ATP Challenger
11.02.26	Raphael Collignon - Patrick Zahraj	2:0 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
08.02.26	Iliyan Radulov - Raphael Collignon	Canceled ✺
07.02.26	Alexander Vasilev - Raphael Collignon	0:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Raphael Collignon	Collignon R. retired ✺
ATP Adelaide
10.01.26	Andrea Vavassori - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 W?W?L
- Martin Damm
ATP Challenger
10.02.26	Remy Bertola - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Montpellier
07.02.26	Adrian Mannarino - Martin Damm	2:1 ✺
06.02.26	Martin Damm - Luca Nardi	2:0 ✺
04.02.26	Martin Damm - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WLWWW

Raphael Collignon - Martin Damm: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide