Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Montpellier, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 4 February 2026, Wednesday

Where to Watch on TV:


Finland	Veikkaus TV


	Martin Damm		Roberto Bautista-Agut

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
			Watch
	1.65	2.21	Watch
	1.71	2.24
	1.65	2.18	Watch
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.68	2.19	Watch
	1.68	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (2.29)	2.19 ↑ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Martin Damm
56.7%

Roberto Bautista-Agut
43.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.6%

59.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Martin Damm has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+15.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Martin Damm's performance.

Roberto Bautista-Agut has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Roberto Bautista-Agut might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Martin Damm than the current prediction. (-16.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Martin Damm that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Roberto Bautista-Agut than the current prediction. (+16.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Roberto Bautista-Agut could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	0%	12.5%

Martin Damm - Roberto Bautista Agut Predictions

Users Predictions: 15 users predict this event. Damm will win (votes: 13 - 86.7%). Bautista-Agut will win (votes: 2 - 13.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Damm: 69.5% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 10.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Games - Damm (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Martin Damm will win (11 of 13 users predict this - 84.62%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 14 Selected Experts predict this event. Damm (votes: 12 - 85.7%). Bautista-Agut (votes: 2 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Damm is ranked ATP: 160. Bautista-Agut is ranked ATP: 89.

Recent performances by Damm have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Bautista-Agut's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Damm may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Roberto Bautista-Agut - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 58.74%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Martin Damm
ATP Montpellier
03.02.26	Hubert Hurkacz - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
02.02.26	Clement Tabur - Martin Damm	1:2 ✺
01.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Martin Damm	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
27.01.26	Martin Damm - Vilius Gaubas	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Martin Damm - Valentin Vacherot	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 WWWLL
- Roberto Bautista-Agut
ATP Montpellier
02.02.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Christopher OConnell	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Juncheng Shang - Roberto Bautista-Agut	3:1 ✺
ATP Auckland
12.01.26	Roberto Bautista-Agut - Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	0:2 ✺
09.01.26	Mattia Bellucci - Roberto Bautista-Agut	Canceled ✺
ATP Brisbane
02.01.26	Christopher OConnell - Roberto Bautista-Agut	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.4 WLL??

Martin Damm - Roberto Bautista-Agut: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide