Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 22 September 2025, Monday


	Rei Sakamoto		Adam Walton

	1	2
			Watch
			Watch
	2.76	1.46
	1.41	2.92	Watch
	2.7	1.43	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.29 ↓ (3.23)	1.94 ↑ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 4.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
45.8%

Adam Walton
54.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.3%

70.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.8%

72.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+16.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Rei Sakamoto's performance.

Adam Walton has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Adam Walton might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-18%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Rei Sakamoto that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Adam Walton than the current prediction. (+18%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Adam Walton could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
71.4%	0%	28.6%

Rei Sakamoto - Adam Walton Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Sakamoto will win (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Walton will win (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 1 - 50%). Walton (votes: 1 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +4 Games - Sakamoto (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Walton (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 189. Walton is ranked ATP: 76.

Sakamoto has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Walton is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Walton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Walton is considered a favorite.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP Chengdu
16.09.25	Rei Sakamoto - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
21.08.25	Rei Sakamoto - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Tyler Zink - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.08.25	Kaylan Bigun - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
31.07.25	Rei Sakamoto - Eliot Spizzirri	Sakamoto R. retired ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.4 LLWL?
- Adam Walton
ATP Hangzhou
19.09.25	Adam Walton - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Adam Walton - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	1:3 ✺
25.08.25	Ugo Humbert - Adam Walton	1:3 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
17.08.25	Botic Van De Zandschulp - Adam Walton	2:1 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
12.08.25	Jiri Lehecka - Adam Walton	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 LLWLL

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