Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open - Qualification, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 21 August 2025, Thursday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

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	Rei Sakamoto		Ignacio Buse

	1	2
	2.25	1.57
	2.05	1.72
	2.25	1.61
	2.09	1.77
	2.22	1.64	Watch
	2.1	1.67
	2.19	1.66	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↑ (2.09)	1.66 ↓ (1.67)

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rei Sakamoto
43.4%

Ignacio Buse
56.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44.4%

55.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.6%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rei Sakamoto has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Ignacio Buse has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rei Sakamoto than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ignacio Buse than the current prediction. (+0.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Rei Sakamoto - Ignacio Buse Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Sakamoto will win (votes: 5 - 38.5%). Buse will win (votes: 8 - 61.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Buse: 35% – 88%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Sakamoto (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Buse (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Sakamoto is ranked ATP: 200. Buse is ranked ATP: 136.

Sakamoto has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Buse is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Sakamoto may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both players are nearly identical in this match.

We predict that Buse will win today's game, with odds of 1.65.

In recent times, the players did not meet on the field.

Last Results with these Odds

Rei Sakamoto - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.38%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Ignacio Buse - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.62%, but this team recently wins 40% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rei Sakamoto
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Tyler Zink - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
12.08.25	Kaylan Bigun - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
31.07.25	Rei Sakamoto - Eliot Spizzirri	Sakamoto R. retired ✺
29.07.25	Antoine Ghibaudo - Rei Sakamoto	1:2 ✺
22.07.25	Eliot Spizzirri - Rei Sakamoto	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WL?WL
- Ignacio Buse
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Lukas Neumayer - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
16.08.25	Ignacio Buse - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
15.08.25	Daniel Altmaier - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
14.08.25	Ignacio Buse - Beibit Zhukayev	2:0 ✺
14.08.25	Daniel Elahi Galan - Ignacio Buse	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.8 WLWWW

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