Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	ESPN


	Reilly Opelka		Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.9	1.41	Watch
	3.05	1.38	Watch
	2.75	1.44	Watch
	2.91	1.42	Watch
	2.9	1.41
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.92 ↑ (2.71)	1.41 ↓ (1.46)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Reilly Opelka
32.6%

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
67.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35%

65%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

61.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilly Opelka than the current prediction. (+6.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Reilly Opelka, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina than the current prediction. (-6.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	0%	88.2%

Reilly Opelka - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Opelka (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win (15 of 17 users predict this - 88.24%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.93% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Alejandro Davidovich Fokina will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Opelka (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Davidovich Fokina (votes: 8 - 88.9%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:3

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Preview

Opelka is ranked ATP: 63. Davidovich Fokina is ranked ATP: 14.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Davidovich Fokina may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Davidovich Fokina is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Opelka won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - the odds 1.46 are the expected chance of winning is 65.01%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Reilly Opelka
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
13.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
11.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Alexei Popyrin	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
07.01.26	Kamil Majchrzak - Reilly Opelka	2:1 ✺
05.01.26	Reilly Opelka - Dane Sweeny	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW
- Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Filip Misolic - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:3 ✺
ATP Adelaide
16.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Ugo Humbert	1:2 ✺
15.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Valentin Vacherot	2:0 ✺
14.01.26	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Rinky Hijikata	2:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
05.01.26	Brandon Nakashima - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Atlanta
25.07.24	Reilly Opelka - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2

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