Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Madrid, clay - 1/64-finals

Date: 23 April 2026, Thursday


	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer		Reilly Opelka

	1	2
	1.91	1.91	Watch
	1.93	1.88
	1.96	1.94
	1.93	1.87	Watch
	2	1.8
	1.95	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2.06)	1.89 ↑ (1.75)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
49.2%

Reilly Opelka
50.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45.9%

54.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

56.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

Reilly Opelka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Nicolai Budkov Kjaer than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Nicolai Budkov Kjaer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Reilly Opelka than the current prediction. (+5.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Reilly Opelka could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka Predictions

Users Predictions: 21 users predict this event. Budkov Kjaer will win (votes: 14 - 66.7%). Opelka will win (votes: 7 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Budkov Kjaer: 46.5% – 86.9%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Budkov Kjaer is ranked ATP: 140. Opelka is ranked ATP: 70.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Budkov Kjaer may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Budkov Kjaer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Last Results with these Odds

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - the odds 2.06 are the expected chance of winning is 45.93%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Nicolai Budkov Kjaer
ATP Madrid
21.04.26	Moez Echargui - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	0:2 ✺
20.04.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Francesco Maestrelli	2:0 ✺
ATP Barcelona
11.04.26	Marco Trungelliti - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:1 ✺
ATP Monte Carlo
04.04.26	Damir Dzumhur - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
ATP Marrakech
30.03.26	Henrique Rocha - Nicolai Budkov Kjaer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 WWLLL
- Reilly Opelka
ATP Barcelona
13.04.26	Reilly Opelka - Ethan Quinn	0:2 ✺
ATP Miami
22.03.26	Reilly Opelka - Taylor Harry Fritz	0:2 ✺
20.03.26	Jack Draper - Reilly Opelka	0:2 ✺
19.03.26	Reilly Opelka - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
06.03.26	Ben Shelton - Reilly Opelka	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.4 LLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Australian Open
18.01.26	Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka	0:3

Nicolai Budkov Kjaer - Reilly Opelka: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide