Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shenzhen 4, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 October 2025, Wednesday


	Rio Noguchi		Kaichi Uchida

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.66	2.09	Watch
	1.74	2.13
	1.66	2.11	Watch
	1.7	2.09	Watch
	1.7	2.03
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.69 ↓ (1.73)	2.09 ↑ (2)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
55.3%

Kaichi Uchida
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.6%

46.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.2%

46.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Kaichi Uchida has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kaichi Uchida than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Rio Noguchi - Kaichi Uchida Predictions

Users Predictions: Rio Noguchi will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rio Noguchi will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 219. Uchida is ranked ATP: 367.

Noguchi is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Uchida is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Noguchi may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

We predict that Uchida will win today's game, with odds of 1.98.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Noguchi won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:6. (average 1.2:1.2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
06.10.25	Rio Noguchi - Sergey Fomin	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
29.09.25	Yoshihito Nishioka - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
21.09.25	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.09.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
04.09.25	Oliver Crawford - Rio Noguchi	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLLLW
- Kaichi Uchida
ITF Tournaments
12.10.25	Marc Polmans - Kaichi Uchida	2:1 ✺
10.10.25	Kaichi Uchida - Masamichi Imamura	2:1 ✺
09.10.25	Emile Hudd - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
09.10.25	Ymerali Ibraimi - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
06.10.25	Cruz Hewitt - Kaichi Uchida	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
28.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Rio Noguchi	2:0
21.07.24	Kaichi Uchida - Rio Noguchi	0:2
09.01.24	Kaichi Uchida - Rio Noguchi	1:2
31.12.23	Rio Noguchi - Kaichi Uchida	2:1
ITF Tournaments
01.07.21	Rio Noguchi - Kaichi Uchida	0:2

Rio Noguchi - Kaichi Uchida: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide