Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Shanghai, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 5 September 2025, Friday


	Yasutaka Uchiyama		Rio Noguchi

	1	2
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.57	2.25	Watch
	1.61	2.18	Watch
	1.6	2.44
	1.41	2.79	Watch
			Watch
	1.63	2.19	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↓ (1.81)	2.33 ↑ (1.86)

The best margin for this event is 3.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yasutaka Uchiyama
59.5%

Rio Noguchi
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

49.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.5%

44.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yasutaka Uchiyama has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yasutaka Uchiyama's performance.

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rio Noguchi might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yasutaka Uchiyama than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+4%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
94.1%	0%	5.9%

Yasutaka Uchiyama - Rio Noguchi Predictions

Users Predictions: Yasutaka Uchiyama will win (16 of 17 users predict this - 94.12%).
Confidence interval (95%): 82.94% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Yasutaka Uchiyama will win (12 of 13 users predict this - 92.31%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Uchiyama is ranked ATP: 225. Noguchi is ranked ATP: 219.

Uchiyama is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Noguchi has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Uchiyama may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Uchiyama won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 0:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Yasutaka Uchiyama - the odds 1.81 are the expected chance of winning is 50.68%, but this team recently wins 75% of matches with these odds.

Rio Noguchi - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.32%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yasutaka Uchiyama
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Ilia Simakin - Yasutaka Uchiyama	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Arthur Gea	2:0 ✺
31.08.25	Sho Shimabukuro - Yasutaka Uchiyama	2:0 ✺
29.08.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Kaichi Uchida	2:0 ✺
28.08.25	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Tsung-Hao Huang	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWLWW
- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
04.09.25	Oliver Crawford - Rio Noguchi	1:2 ✺
03.09.25	Rio Noguchi - Yosuke Watanuki	2:0 ✺
28.08.25	Kaichi Uchida - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
26.08.25	Linang Xiao - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
ATP US Open
19.08.25	Jaime Faria - Rio Noguchi	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
10.01.24	Yasutaka Uchiyama - Rio Noguchi	Uchiyama Y. retired

Yasutaka Uchiyama - Rio Noguchi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide