Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Winnipeg, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 12 July 2025, Saturday


	Rio Noguchi		Liam Draxl

	1	2
	3.5	1.29	Watch
	3.1	1.33	Watch
	3.3	1.27	Watch
	3.25	1.37
			Watch
	3.5	1.29	Watch
	3.47	1.3	Watch
	3.1	1.28
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.32 ↑ (3.07)	1.3 ↓ (1.35)

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
28.2%

Liam Draxl
71.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

30.5%

69.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.5%

69.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.2%	0%	81.8%

Rio Noguchi - Liam Draxl Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Draxl (votes: 2 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Liam Draxl will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 222. Draxl is ranked ATP: 147.

Recent performances by Noguchi have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Draxl is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Draxl may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Draxl is the team to beat.

We predict that Draxl will win today's game, with odds of 1.32.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Liam Draxl - the odds 1.35 are the expected chance of winning is 69.5%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
10.07.25	Rio Noguchi - Nicolas Arseneault	2:0 ✺
08.07.25	Rio Noguchi - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
01.07.25	Rio Noguchi - Hiroki Moriya	1:2 ✺
06.06.25	Rio Noguchi - Yi Zhou	0:2 ✺
04.06.25	Rio Noguchi - Stefan Dostanic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 WWLLW
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
10.07.25	Kenta Miyoshi - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
09.07.25	Hiroki Moriya - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
06.07.25	Rei Sakamoto - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
05.07.25	Yibing Wu - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
04.07.25	Aidan Mayo - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWLWW

Rio Noguchi - Liam Draxl: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide