Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nonthaburi 2, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 15 January 2026, Thursday


	Rio Noguchi		Maximus Jones

	1	2
	1.5	2.5	Watch
	1.5	2.41	Watch
	1.65	2.14	Watch
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.53	2.34	Watch
	1.53	2.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.53 ↑ (1.43)	2.4 ↓ (2.6)

The best margin for this event is 6.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Rio Noguchi
61.1%

Maximus Jones
38.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

35.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.6%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Rio Noguchi has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Maximus Jones has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maximus Jones than the current prediction. (-4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
62.5%	0%	37.5%

Rio Noguchi - Maximus Jones Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Noguchi will win (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Jones will win (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Noguchi: 29% – 96%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Rio Noguchi will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Noguchi is ranked ATP: 246. Jones is ranked ATP: 378.

Noguchi has been on a winning streak and is in great shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

In recent matches, Jones has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Noguchi may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Noguchi is seen as the favorite.

We predict that Noguchi will win today's game, with odds of 1.38.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Noguchi won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:2. (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
14.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Marek Gengel	2:1 ✺
13.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Sumit Nagal	Noguchi R. retired ✺
12.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Stefanos Sakellaridis	2:0 ✺
09.01.26	Marek Gengel - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 W?WWW
- Maximus Jones
ATP Challenger
14.01.26	Yi Zhou - Maximus Jones	1:2 ✺
14.01.26	Petr Bar-Biryukov - Maximus Jones	Bar Biryukov P. retired ✺
12.01.26	Maximus Jones - Joel Schwaerzler	2:1 ✺
05.01.26	Maximus Jones - Tibo Colson	0:2 ✺
17.11.25	Maximus Jones - Ryotaro Taguchi	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.1 W?WLL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.01.25	Maximus Jones - Rio Noguchi	1:2
09.01.24	Rio Noguchi - Maximus Jones	2:1

Rio Noguchi - Maximus Jones: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide