Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Nonthaburi, hard - Final

Date: 9 January 2026, Friday


	Marek Gengel		Rio Noguchi

	1	2
	2.38	1.53	Watch
	2.29	1.55
	2.37	1.56	Watch
	2.25	1.57
	2.25	1.57	Watch
	2.33	1.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.31 ↑ (2.17)	1.56 ↓ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Marek Gengel
40.2%

Rio Noguchi
59.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

57.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.5%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Marek Gengel has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Rio Noguchi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Marek Gengel than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Rio Noguchi than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

Marek Gengel - Rio Noguchi Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Noguchi (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Gengel is ranked ATP: 415. Noguchi is ranked ATP: 227.

At the moment, both players are looking strong and ready to play.

Noguchi could have a small edge in this match.

We predict that Noguchi will win today's game, with odds of 1.59.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Gengel won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Rio Noguchi - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.41%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Marek Gengel
ATP Challenger
08.01.26	Zdenek Kolar - Marek Gengel	0:2 ✺
08.01.26	Sergey Fomin - Marek Gengel	0:2 ✺
07.01.26	Yuta Shimizu - Marek Gengel	1:2 ✺
05.01.26	Marek Gengel - Andres Martin	2:0 ✺
24.11.25	Bernard Tomic - Marek Gengel	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20 WWWWL
- Rio Noguchi
ATP Challenger
08.01.26	Rio Noguchi - Joel Schwaerzler	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Marat Sharipov - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Tung-Lin Wu - Rio Noguchi	1:2 ✺
05.01.26	Sanhui Shin - Rio Noguchi	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	James Duckworth - Rio Noguchi	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.9 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
27.02.23	Rio Noguchi - Marek Gengel	2:1
01.11.22	Rio Noguchi - Marek Gengel	0:2

Marek Gengel - Rio Noguchi: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide