Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: MIAMI (USA), HARD - 1/32-FINALS

Date: 25 March 2023, Saturday


	Sebastian Baez		Christian Garin

	1	2
	2.63	1.5	Watch
	2.45	1.53
	2.6	1.5
	2.55	1.51
	2.5	1.59
	2.6	1.5	Watch
	2.5	1.53	Watch
	2.6	1.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.55 ↑ (2.39)	1.52 ↓ (1.61)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
37.3%

Christian Garin
62.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

59.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.1%

59.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Christian Garin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (+2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
10.5%	0%	89.5%

Sebastian Baez - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: Christian Garin will win (34 of 38 users predict this - 89.47%).
Confidence interval (95%): 79.71% – 99.23%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Recent matches Baez is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Garin is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Garin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Garin will have a poor advantage in this game.

Our prediction for today's Garin to win the game is with odds 1.54.

Last 2 head-to-head matches Baez won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Indian Wells
13.03.23	Taylor Harry Fritz - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
11.03.23	Rinky Hijikata - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
ATP Santiago
04.03.23	Sebastian Baez - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2 ✺
03.03.23	Laslo Djere - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
02.03.23	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.8 LWLWW
- Christian Garin
ATP Miami
23.03.23	Marcos Giron - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
21.03.23	Christian Garin - Alejandro Tabilo	2:0 ✺
20.03.23	Christian Garin - Kaichi Uchida	2:0 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
14.03.23	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina - Christian Garin	2:0 ✺
12.03.23	Christian Garin - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Santiago
02.03.23	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	0:2
ATP Cordoba
03.02.22	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2

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