Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Santiago, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 26 February 2026, Thursday


	Christian Garin		Sebastian Baez

	1	2
	3	1.4	Watch
	2.95	1.39	Watch
	3.11	1.41
	3.11	1.35	Watch
	2.9	1.4	Watch
	2.92	1.41	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3 ↑ (2.3)	1.39 ↓ (1.62)

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Christian Garin
31.7%

Sebastian Baez
68.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.3%

58.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

58.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Christian Garin's form might have worsened.

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Sebastian Baez's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+10.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Christian Garin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-10.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Sebastian Baez, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	0%	95.8%

Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 19.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +4.5 Games - Garin (1.58) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Sebastian Baez will win (23 of 24 users predict this - 95.83%).
Confidence interval (95%): 87.83% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Baez will win (7 of 9 users predict this - 77.78%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Garin (votes: 3 - 30%). Baez (votes: 7 - 70%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Garin is ranked ATP: 93. Baez is ranked ATP: 52.

Garin has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Baez's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Garin may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Baez is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Garin won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Christian Garin
ATP Santiago
24.02.26	Juan Manuel Cerundolo - Christian Garin	1:2 ✺
ATP Rio de Janeiro
16.02.26	Christian Garin - Thiago Augustin Tirante	0:2 ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
09.02.26	Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera - Christian Garin	Canceled ✺
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Christian Garin - Luciano Darderi	0:3 ✺
ATP Auckland
09.01.26	Christian Garin - Eliot Spizzirri	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 WL?LL
- Sebastian Baez
ATP Rio de Janeiro
17.02.26	Jaime Faria - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Carlos Taberner - Sebastian Baez	Canceled ✺
ATP Buenos Aires
14.02.26	Sebastian Baez - Luciano Darderi	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
12.02.26	Ignacio Buse - Sebastian Baez	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 L?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Miami
25.03.23	Sebastian Baez - Christian Garin	0:2
ATP Santiago
02.03.23	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	0:2
ATP Cordoba
03.02.22	Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez	1:2

Christian Garin - Sebastian Baez: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide