Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: TURIN 2 (ITALY), HARD (INDOOR) - SEMI-FINALS

Date: 20 May 2023, Saturday


	Sebastian Baez		Federico Gaio

	1	2
	1.18	4.5	Watch
	1.22	3.8
	1.2	4.6
	1.23	4.61
	1.2	4.33	Watch
	1.2	4.3	Watch
	1.2	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.32)	4.38 ↑ (3.38)

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Baez
78.4%

Federico Gaio
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.9%

28.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.4%

28.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Baez has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Sebastian Baez's performance.

Federico Gaio has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Federico Gaio might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Baez than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Baez that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Federico Gaio than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Federico Gaio could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
11.8%	0%	88.2%

Sebastian Baez - Federico Gaio Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Baez will win (votes: 2 - 11.8%). Gaio will win (votes: 15 - 88.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gaio: 72.9% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Two players are playing changeable.

In this match Baez is a favorite.

Recently, the players did not play each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Baez
ATP Challenger
18.05.23	Sebastian Baez - Thiago Seyboth Wild	2:1 ✺
17.05.23	Sebastian Baez - Riccardo Bonadio	2:0 ✺
ATP Roma
12.05.23	Alexander Shevchenko - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
10.05.23	Sebastian Baez - Juan Pablo Varillas Patino-Samudio	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
01.05.23	Sebastian Baez - Stefanos Tsitsipas	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 WWLWL
- Federico Gaio
ATP Challenger
18.05.23	Andrea Collarini - Federico Gaio	0:2 ✺
17.05.23	Camilo Ugo Carabelli - Federico Gaio	Ugo Carabelli C. retired ✺
16.05.23	Federico Gaio - Oscar Otte	2:0 ✺
15.05.23	Federico Gaio - Andrea Gola	2:0 ✺
09.05.23	Federico Gaio - Nick Hardt	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 W?WWL

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