Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Dallas, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 11 February 2026, Wednesday


	Sebastian Korda		Francis Tiafoe

	1	2
	1.73	2.1	Watch
			Watch
	1.75	2	Watch
	1.8	2.1
	1.69	2.17	Watch
	1.73	2.1	Watch
	1.82	2.02	Watch
	1.75	2.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.75 ↓ (1.91)	2.08 ↑ (1.91)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Korda
54.3%

Francis Tiafoe
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.2%

53.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.3%)

Francis Tiafoe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-8.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Sebastian Korda that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+8.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Francis Tiafoe could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
45%	0%	55%

Sebastian Korda - Francis Tiafoe Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Korda will win (votes: 9 - 45%). Tiafoe will win (votes: 11 - 55%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 33.2% – 76.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Korda (votes: 6 - 60%). Tiafoe (votes: 4 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 21.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Korda is ranked ATP: 53. Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 30.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Korda won 3.

Korda is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Tiafoe has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Tiafoe may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Korda won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 8:10. (average 1.1:1.4).

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Korda - the odds 1.91 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Korda
ATP Dallas
09.02.26	Michael Zheng - Sebastian Korda	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
01.02.26	Sebastian Korda - Zachary Svajda	0:2 ✺
31.01.26	Sebastian Korda - Patrick Kypson	2:0 ✺
30.01.26	Sebastian Korda - Liam Draxl	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Sebastian Korda - Andre Ilagan	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLWWW
- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Dallas
09.02.26	Terence Atmane - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Australian Open
23.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Alex De Minaur	0:3 ✺
21.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Francisco Comesana	3:1 ✺
18.01.26	Francis Tiafoe - Jason Kubler	3:0 ✺
ATP Brisbane
06.01.26	Daniil Medvedev - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roland Garros
30.05.25	Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Korda	3:0
ATP Washington
03.08.24	Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Korda	0:2
ATP London
21.06.23	Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Korda	0:2
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.22	Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Korda	1:2
ATP Estoril
30.04.22	Sebastian Korda - Francis Tiafoe	1:2
ATP Indian Wells
09.10.21	Sebastian Korda - Francis Tiafoe	0:2
ATP New York
12.02.18	Francis Tiafoe - Sebastian Korda	2:1

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