Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Athens, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 7 November 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	Premier Sport 3
Denmark	TV2 Play
Finland	MTV Katsomo, MTV Urheilu 1
Poland	Polsat Sport 3
Sweden	TV4 Play


	Sebastian Korda		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	2.1	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	2.11	1.7	Watch
	2.13	1.8
	2.17	1.65	Watch
			Watch
	2.19	1.76	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↓ (2.17)	1.73 ↑ (1.65)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Korda
44.7%

Lorenzo Musetti
55.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

43.2%

56.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

55.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Korda has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.5%)

Lorenzo Musetti has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sebastian Korda than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Korda (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Musetti (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Korda is ranked ATP: 52. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Korda is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Musetti has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Korda won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 1.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Korda
ATP Athens
06.11.25	Sebastian Korda - Miomir Kecmanovic	2:0 ✺
04.11.25	Sebastian Korda - Damir Dzumhur	2:1 ✺
02.11.25	Alexei Popyrin - Sebastian Korda	1:2 ✺
ATP Paris
27.10.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Sebastian Korda	2:0 ✺
26.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Valentin Royer	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WWWLW
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Athens
06.11.25	Alexandre Muller - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
05.11.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
ATP Paris
29.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
ATP Vienna
25.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Corentin Moutet - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Metz
21.09.22	Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0
ATP Madrid
04.05.22	Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2
ATP Next Gen Finals
11.11.21	Sebastian Korda - Lorenzo Musetti	3:0
ATP Lyon
19.05.21	Lorenzo Musetti - Sebastian Korda	2:1

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