Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Australian Open, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 21 January 2026, Wednesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Melbourne Park (Melbourne) 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	21:40	ESPN
Belgium	01:40	HBO Max, HBO Max
Bosnia And Herzegovina	01:40	HBO Max
Brazil	21:40	ESPN
Bulgaria	02:40	HBO Max
Canada	19:40	RDS App
Colombia	19:40	ESPN
Croatia	01:40	HBO Max
Czech Republic	01:40	HBO Max
Denmark	01:40	HBO Max
Finland	02:40	HBO Max
France	01:40	HBO Max
Hungary	01:40	HBO Max
Mexico	18:40	ESPN
Moldova	02:40	HBO Max
Montenegro	01:40	HBO Max
Netherlands	01:40	HBO Max
North Macedonia	01:40	HBO Max
Norway	01:40	HBO Max
Peru	19:40	ESPN
Poland	01:40	HBO Max
Romania	02:40	HBO Max
Serbia	01:40	HBO Max
Slovenia	01:40	HBO Max
Spain	01:40	HBO Max
Sweden	01:40	HBO Max
United Kingdom	00:40	Discovery+
Usa	19:40	ESPN USA
Venezuela	20:40	ESPN


	Lorenzo Musetti		Lorenzo Sonego

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.36	3.1
	1.36	3.15	Watch
	1.42	2.89	Watch
	1.36	3.1	Watch
	1.39	3.18	Watch
	1.4	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.38 ↓ (1.4)	3.09 ↑ (3)

The best margin for this event is 3.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Lorenzo Musetti
69.1%

Lorenzo Sonego
30.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.9%)

Lorenzo Sonego has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -4.5 Games - Musetti (1.89) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 37.5 Games - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +2.5 Sets - Sonego (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Lorenzo Musetti will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Lorenzo Musetti will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 5 - 83.3%). Sonego (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Preview

Musetti is ranked ATP: 5. Sonego is ranked ATP: 40.

Musetti is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Sonego may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Musetti won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:4. (average 1:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Lorenzo Musetti - the odds 1.4 are the expected chance of winning is 68.18%, but this team recently wins 58% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Raphael Collignon	Collignon R. retired ✺
ATP Hong Kong
11.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Bublik	0:2 ✺
10.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Andrey Rublev	2:1 ✺
09.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Chak Lam Coleman Wong	2:0 ✺
07.01.26	Lorenzo Musetti - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 ?LWWW
- Lorenzo Sonego
ATP Australian Open
19.01.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Carlos Taberner	3:0 ✺
ATP Hong Kong
08.01.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Juncheng Shang	0:2 ✺
06.01.26	Lorenzo Sonego - Rei Sakamoto	2:0 ✺
ATP Metz
07.11.25	Cameron Norrie - Lorenzo Sonego	2:1 ✺
06.11.25	Lorenzo Sonego - Daniel Altmaier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Paris
29.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2
ATP Vienna
22.10.24	Lorenzo Sonego - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2
Exhibition Italian Championship Men
26.06.20	Lorenzo Sonego - Lorenzo Musetti	2:0

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