Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Athens, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 November 2025, Thursday


	Alexandre Muller		Lorenzo Musetti

	1	2
	4.33	1.22	Watch
			Watch
	4	1.23
	4.49	1.24
	3.91	1.23	Watch
			Watch
	3.81	1.27	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.11 ↑ (3.27)	1.24 ↓ (1.34)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Alexandre Muller
23.2%

Lorenzo Musetti
76.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

71%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28%

72%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Alexandre Muller has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Alexandre Muller's form might have worsened.

Lorenzo Musetti has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lorenzo Musetti's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lorenzo Musetti than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
30%	0%	70%

Alexandre Muller - Lorenzo Musetti Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Muller will win (votes: 3 - 30%). Musetti will win (votes: 7 - 70%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Musetti: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Musetti (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Muller is ranked ATP: 43. Musetti is ranked ATP: 9.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Musetti may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Musetti is the team to beat.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Muller won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Alexandre Muller
ATP Athens
05.11.25	Alexandre Muller - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:1 ✺
03.11.25	Alexandre Muller - Jan-Lennard Struff	2:1 ✺
ATP Paris
29.10.25	Felix Aliassime-Auger - Alexandre Muller	2:1 ✺
27.10.25	Alexandre Muller - Brandon Nakashima	2:0 ✺
ATP Basel
20.10.25	Jenson Brooksby - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.8 WWLWL
- Lorenzo Musetti
ATP Athens
05.11.25	Stanislas Wawrinka - Lorenzo Musetti	1:2 ✺
ATP Paris
29.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Lorenzo Sonego	1:2 ✺
ATP Vienna
25.10.25	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexander Zverev	0:2 ✺
24.10.25	Corentin Moutet - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
23.10.25	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Lorenzo Musetti	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Marrakech
07.04.23	Lorenzo Musetti - Alexandre Muller	1:2

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