Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Thionville, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 6 March 2026, Friday


	Sebastian Ofner		Jurij Rodionov

	1	2
	1.62	2.2	Watch
	1.63	2.14	Watch
	1.72	2.22
	1.65	2.11	Watch
	1.67	2.1	Watch
	1.66	2.1	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↑ (1.65)	2.15 ↑ (2.09)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sebastian Ofner
56.4%

Jurij Rodionov
43.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.9%

44.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.6%

40.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sebastian Ofner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Jurij Rodionov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sebastian Ofner than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Jurij Rodionov than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
76.9%	0%	23.1%

Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Ofner will win (votes: 10 - 76.9%). Rodionov will win (votes: 3 - 23.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ofner: 54% – 99.8%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Sebastian Ofner will win (5 of 5 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Ofner is ranked ATP: 108. Rodionov is ranked ATP: 177.

Ofner has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Rodionov has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Rodionov may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

We predict that Ofner will win today's game, with odds of 1.66.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Ofner won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 5:3. (average 1:0.6).

Last Results with these Odds

Sebastian Ofner - the odds 1.65 are the expected chance of winning is 55.88%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Jurij Rodionov - the odds 2.09 are the expected chance of winning is 44.12%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sebastian Ofner
ATP Challenger
05.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Murphy Cassone	2:0 ✺
04.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - George Loffhagen	2:1 ✺
01.03.26	Sebastian Ofner - Pierre-Hugues Herbert	2:0 ✺
28.02.26	Clement Chidekh - Sebastian Ofner	1:2 ✺
27.02.26	Sebastian Ofner - Matteo Martineau	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWWW
- Jurij Rodionov
ATP Challenger
05.03.26	Jurij Rodionov - Martin Krumich	2:0 ✺
03.03.26	Jurij Rodionov - Hugo Grenier	Grenier H. retired ✺
26.02.26	Matteo Martineau - Jurij Rodionov	2:0 ✺
24.02.26	Patrick Zahraj - Jurij Rodionov	0:2 ✺
Davis Cup World Group
07.02.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Jurij Rodionov	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.7 W?LW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
20.04.22	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	2:0
ATP Los Cabos
19.07.21	Jurij Rodionov - Sebastian Ofner	Ofner S. retired
ATP Roland Garros
25.09.20	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	1:2
Exhibition Thiems Seven Men
10.07.20	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	2:1
ATP Challenger
29.10.19	Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov	Rodionov J. retired

Sebastian Ofner - Jurij Rodionov: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide