Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Wuning 3, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 5 October 2026, Monday


	Sergey Fomin		Timofei Derepasko

	1	2
			Watch
	1.44	2.60
	1.4	2.65	Watch
	1.44	2.58	Watch
	1.45	2.7
	1.41	2.69	Watch
	1.4	2.65
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↑ (1.41)	2.65 ↓ (2.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Sergey Fomin
65%

Timofei Derepasko
35%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.1%

33.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

71.5%

28.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Sergey Fomin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Timofei Derepasko has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sergey Fomin than the current prediction. (+6.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Sergey Fomin, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Timofei Derepasko than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Timofei Derepasko, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Sergey Fomin - Timofei Derepasko Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Fomin is ranked ATP: 289., and Derepasko is ranked ATP: 656..

Fomin is on a difficult losing run (last 5 matches: 0 wins).

Derepasko has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Fomin could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Fomin is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Fomin has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:1.

Last Results with these Odds

Sergey Fomin - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 66.11%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Sergey Fomin
ATP Challenger
16.09.26	Mitsuki Wei Kang Leong - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Sergey Fomin - Yi Zhou	0:2 ✺
01.09.26	Khumoun Sultanov - Sergey Fomin	2:0 ✺
ITF Tournaments
26.08.26	Xirui Han - Sergey Fomin	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.08.26	Aziz Dougaz - Sergey Fomin	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Timofei Derepasko
ITF Tournaments
28.09.26	Timofei Derepasko - Matic Dimic	0:2 ✺
23.09.26	Francesco Ferrari - Timofei Derepasko	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
15.09.26	Timofei Derepasko - Ilia Simakin	0:2 ✺
14.09.26	Timofei Derepasko - Taisei Ichikawa	2:0 ✺
13.09.26	Timofei Derepasko - Stefan Storch	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

ITF Tournaments
06.11.25	Timofei Derepasko - Sergey Fomin	1:2

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