Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Vancouver, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 29 July 2026, Wednesday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Hayato Matsuoka

	1	2
	1.40	2.75
	1.40	2.70
	1.41	2.80	Watch
	1.44	2.95
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.42	2.85	Watch
	1.39	2.77	Watch
	1.40	2.80
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.41 ↓ (1.44)	2.78 ↑ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
66.3%

Hayato Matsuoka
33.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.6%

35.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.3%

37.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

Hayato Matsuoka has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Hayato Matsuoka than the current prediction. (+4%)

Shintaro Mochizuki - Hayato Matsuoka Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 114. Matsuoka is ranked ATP: 328.

Mochizuki is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Matsuoka's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Mochizuki may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Mochizuki might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Shintaro Mochizuki - the odds 1.44 are the expected chance of winning is 64.62%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
28.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Charles Broom	2:1 ✺
25.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
24.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Johannus Monday	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Duncan Chan	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Philip Sekulic	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WLWWW
- Hayato Matsuoka
ATP Challenger
29.07.26	Yosuke Watanuki - Hayato Matsuoka	0:2 ✺
28.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - James Kent Trotter	0:2 ✺
27.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Guillaume Dalmasso	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Clement Chidekh	0:2 ✺
21.07.26	Hayato Matsuoka - Daniel Milavsky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 WLWLW

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