Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Winnipeg, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday


	Shintaro Mochizuki		Liam Draxl

	1	2
	1.80	1.90
	1.82	1.94
	1.90	1.98
	1.79	1.91	Watch
	2.07	1.73
	1.80	1.88	Watch
	1.80	1.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.85 ↑ (1.79)	1.89 ↓ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Shintaro Mochizuki
50.5%

Liam Draxl
49.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.5%

48.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

54.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Shintaro Mochizuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Shintaro Mochizuki than the current prediction. (-4.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (+4.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	0%	60%

Shintaro Mochizuki - Liam Draxl Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Mochizuki will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Draxl will win (votes: 6 - 60%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Draxl: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Mochizuki is ranked ATP: 116. Draxl is ranked ATP: 244.

Now, both players are in good form.

Draxl may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP Challenger
24.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Johannus Monday	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Duncan Chan	2:1 ✺
21.07.26	Shintaro Mochizuki - Philip Sekulic	2:1 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
05.07.26	Jannik Sinner - Shintaro Mochizuki	3:0 ✺
03.07.26	Rafael Jodar - Shintaro Mochizuki	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.1 WWWLW
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
24.07.26	Liam Draxl - Clement Chidekh	2:0 ✺
23.07.26	August Holmgren - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
21.07.26	Millen Hurrion - Liam Draxl	0:2 ✺
17.07.26	Liam Draxl - Arthur Gea	1:2 ✺
16.07.26	Liam Draxl - Daniel Milavsky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.5 WWWLW

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