Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Tenerife, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Tenerife 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Finland	16:05	Veikkaus TV


	Stefano Travaglia		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	2	1.73	Watch
			Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
	2.02	1.86
	1.95	1.78	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.93	1.76	Watch
	1.84	1.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.96 ↓ (1.98)	1.79 ↑ (1.73)

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Stefano Travaglia
47.7%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
52.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.6%

53.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.7%

64.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Stefano Travaglia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Stefano Travaglia than the current prediction. (-12%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Stefano Travaglia that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+12%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Merida Aguilar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
60%	0%	40%

Stefano Travaglia - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Travaglia will win (votes: 6 - 60%). Merida Aguilar will win (votes: 4 - 40%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Travaglia: 29.6% – 90.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 Sets - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.5 Games - Merida Aguilar (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Travaglia (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Stefano Travaglia will win (9 of 9 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Travaglia (votes: 10 - 90.9%). Merida Aguilar (votes: 1 - 9.1%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Travaglia is ranked ATP: 178. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 183.

Travaglia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Merida Aguilar's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Travaglia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Travaglia
ATP Challenger
06.02.26	Javier Barranco Cosano - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
04.02.26	Gabriele Piraino - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
03.02.26	Sergey Fomin - Stefano Travaglia	0:2 ✺
30.01.26	Otto Virtanen - Stefano Travaglia	2:0 ✺
29.01.26	Chak Lam Coleman Wong - Stefano Travaglia	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLW
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
06.02.26	Alejandro Moro Canas - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
05.02.26	Alejo Sanchez Quilez - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
03.02.26	Toby Samuel - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
20.01.26	Mark Lajal - Daniel Merida Aguilar	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Lukas Klein	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.6 WWWLL

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stefano Travaglia
ATP Challenger
29.10.26	Laslo Djere - Stefano Travaglia	✺

Stefano Travaglia - Daniel Merida Aguilar