Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Oeiras, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 20 January 2026, Tuesday


	Mark Lajal		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.44	2.63	Watch
	1.41	2.7	Watch
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.4	2.75	Watch
	1.42	2.66	Watch
	1.44	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.42 ↓ (1.77)	2.67 ↑ (1.94)

The best margin for this event is 7.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Mark Lajal
65.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
34.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.3%

47.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.8%

41.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Mark Lajal has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Mark Lajal's performance.

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Daniel Merida Aguilar might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mark Lajal than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Mark Lajal that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+6.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Daniel Merida Aguilar could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Mark Lajal - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Lajal (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -2.5 Games - Lajal (1.65) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Lajal (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Lajal is ranked ATP: 153. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 164.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Mark Lajal
ATP Challenger
19.01.26	Mark Lajal - Oleg Prihodko	2:0 ✺
18.01.26	Mark Lajal - Inaki Montes De La Torre	2:1 ✺
ATP Australian Open
11.01.26	Mark Lajal - Francesco Passaro	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
05.01.26	James McCabe - Mark Lajal	2:0 ✺
20.11.25	Mark Lajal - Justin Engel	Engel J. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.5 WWLL?
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Australian Open
14.01.26	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Lukas Klein	1:2 ✺
12.01.26	Oliver Crawford - Daniel Merida Aguilar	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.11.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Elmer Moller	0:2 ✺
28.11.25	Jan Choinski - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
27.11.25	Andres Santamarta Roig - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 LWLWW

Mark Lajal - Daniel Merida Aguilar: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide