Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Lisbon, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 19 October 2026, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Lisbon 🌤️ ... 🔴 Clay


	Thiago Monteiro		Alejandro Moro Canas

	1	2
	1.73	2.00	Watch
	1.72	2.00
	1.83	1.93	Watch
	1.79	1.91	Watch
	1.75	2.00
	1.77	1.92	Watch
	1.75	1.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (2)	1.96 ↑ (1.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 22.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
52.6%

Alejandro Moro Canas
47.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

46.1%

53.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.6%

49.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Thiago Monteiro's performance.

Alejandro Moro Canas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Alejandro Moro Canas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (-2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alejandro Moro Canas than the current prediction. (+2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Thiago Monteiro - Alejandro Moro Canas Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Monteiro will win (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Monteiro is ranked ATP: 235., and Moro Canas is ranked ATP: 233..

Monteiro is going through a lean spell lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Moro Canas have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Monteiro could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Monteiro has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Alejandro Moro Canas - the odds 1.71 are the expected chance of winning is 53.91%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Marco Trungelliti - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
05.10.26	Thiago Monteiro - Elmer Moller	1:2 ✺
22.09.26	Mika Petkovic - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
20.09.26	Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
19.09.26	Thiago Monteiro - Marco Trungelliti	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LLLLW
- Alejandro Moro Canas
ATP Challenger
13.10.26	Tristan Boyer - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:0 ✺
10.10.26	Jonas Forejtek - Alejandro Moro Canas	2:1 ✺
09.10.26	Massimo Giunta - Alejandro Moro Canas	1:2 ✺
07.10.26	Andrej Martin - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
06.10.26	Kalin Ivanovski - Alejandro Moro Canas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.1 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
12.07.24	Alejandro Moro Canas - Thiago Monteiro	0:2

Thiago Monteiro - Alejandro Moro Canas