Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Genova, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday


	Thiago Monteiro		Francesco Passaro

	1	2
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.75	1.4	Watch
	2.55	1.45	Watch
	2.86	1.44
	2.83	1.41	Watch
	2.62	1.44	Watch
	2.63	1.45	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.71 ↑ (2.27)	1.43 ↓ (1.58)

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
34.5%

Francesco Passaro
65.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

59%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.7%

61.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Thiago Monteiro's form might have worsened.

Francesco Passaro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Francesco Passaro's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Francesco Passaro than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Thiago Monteiro - Francesco Passaro Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Monteiro is ranked ATP: 169. Passaro is ranked ATP: 120.

Recent form of Monteiro has been disappointing (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Passaro has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Passaro may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Passaro could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Monteiro won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
30.08.25	Duje Ajdukovic - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
27.08.25	Andrej Martin - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
26.08.25	Alexander Ritschard - Thiago Monteiro	Ritschard A. retired ✺
ATP US Open
18.08.25	Murphy Cassone - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
ATP Kitzbuhel
20.07.25	Thiago Monteiro - Facundo Bagnis	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.1 LW?LL
- Francesco Passaro
ATP US Open
25.08.25	Francesco Passaro - Flavio Cobolli	2:3 ✺
22.08.25	Francesco Passaro - Henrique Rocha	2:0 ✺
21.08.25	Francesco Passaro - Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez	2:1 ✺
18.08.25	Francesco Passaro - Yu Hsiou Hsu	2:1 ✺
ATP Challenger
14.08.25	Alejandro Tabilo - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
06.09.24	Francesco Passaro - Thiago Monteiro	2:1

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