Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Bad Waltersdorf, clay - 1/16-finals

Date: 15 September 2025, Monday


	Thiago Monteiro		Daniel Merida Aguilar

	1	2
	1.8	1.91	Watch
	1.8	1.91
			Watch
	1.72	1.99	Watch
	1.79	1.94	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.78 ↓ (1.83)	1.94 ↑ (1.83)

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Thiago Monteiro
52.2%

Daniel Merida Aguilar
47.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.8%

51.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Thiago Monteiro has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

Daniel Merida Aguilar has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Thiago Monteiro than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Daniel Merida Aguilar than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

Thiago Monteiro - Daniel Merida Aguilar Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merida Aguilar (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Monteiro is ranked ATP: 169. Merida Aguilar is ranked ATP: 166.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Merida Aguilar may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both players in this match.

Recently, there has been no match between the players.

Last Results with these Odds

Daniel Merida Aguilar - the odds 1.83 are the expected chance of winning is 50%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Thiago Monteiro
ATP Challenger
09.09.25	Pablo Llamas Ruiz - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
05.09.25	Luciano Darderi - Thiago Monteiro	2:0 ✺
04.09.25	Enrico Dalla Valle - Thiago Monteiro	0:2 ✺
02.09.25	Thiago Monteiro - Francesco Passaro	2:0 ✺
30.08.25	Duje Ajdukovic - Thiago Monteiro	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLWWL
- Daniel Merida Aguilar
ATP Challenger
05.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Ignacio Buse	1:2 ✺
04.09.25	David Jorda Sanchis - Daniel Merida Aguilar	0:2 ✺
03.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Jaime Faria	2:1 ✺
01.09.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Christoph Negritu	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
22.08.25	Daniel Merida Aguilar - Lloyd Harris	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWWL

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