Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - Quarter-finals

Date: 16 October 2026, Friday


	Tomas Machac		Liam Draxl

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Tomas Machac
70%

Liam Draxl
30%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71%

29%

Our Initial ML Estimation

73.4%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Liam Draxl has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (+3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Liam Draxl than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Machac is ranked ATP: 75., and Draxl is ranked ATP: 219..

In recent outings, Machac has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Draxl is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Machac could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Machac for this game.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Challenger
15.10.26	Tomas Machac - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
13.10.26	Tomas Machac - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
07.10.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Tomas Machac - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 WWLWL
- Liam Draxl
ATP Challenger
15.10.26	Ilya Ivashka - Liam Draxl	1:2 ✺
13.10.26	Liam Draxl - James Duckworth	2:0 ✺
12.10.26	Liam Draxl - Omar Jasika	2:1 ✺
11.10.26	Liam Draxl - Yutong Du	2:0 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Liam Draxl - Nikoloz Basilashvili	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWWWL

Tomas Machac - Liam Draxl: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide