Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Jinan, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Jinan 🌤️ ... 🔵 Hard


	Tomas Machac		Alexandre Muller

	1	2
	1.36	3	Watch
	1.40	2.75
	1.42	2.65	Watch
	1.39	2.76	Watch
	1.41	2.8
	1.38	2.81	Watch
	1.37	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.39 ↑ (1.35)	2.81 ↓ (2.96)

The most likely Over/Under: 21.50

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Machac
66.9%

Alexandre Muller
33.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.6%

31.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.5%

34.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Machac has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Alexandre Muller has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Machac than the current prediction. (-1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alexandre Muller than the current prediction. (+1.4%)

Tomas Machac - Alexandre Muller Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Machac is ranked ATP: 75., and Muller is ranked ATP: 133..

Both players have experienced an unpredictable run of results lately.

Machac may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

In this matchup, Machac is considered the favorite to take the win.

In the last 2 head-to-head meetings, Machac has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:3 (averaging 1.5:1.5 goals per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Alexandre Muller - the odds 2.96 are the expected chance of winning is 31.36%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Shanghai
09.10.26	Alexander Bublik - Tomas Machac	2:0 ✺
07.10.26	Zhizhen Zhang - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP Beijing
28.09.26	Tomas Machac - Arthur Gea	0:2 ✺
27.09.26	Yannick Hanfmann - Tomas Machac	1:2 ✺
ATP US Open
30.08.26	Toby Samuel - Tomas Machac	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LWLWL
- Alexandre Muller
ATP Shanghai
06.10.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
05.10.26	Rio Noguchi - Alexandre Muller	1:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
29.09.26	Mattia Bellucci - Alexandre Muller	2:0 ✺
ATP Chengdu
27.09.26	Alexandre Muller - Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	0:2 ✺
26.09.26	Federico Cina - Alexandre Muller	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.09.23	Alexandre Muller - Tomas Machac	1:2
ATP Doha
19.02.23	Alexandre Muller - Tomas Machac	2:1

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Machac
ATP Paris
31.10.26	Tomas Machac - Martin Landaluce	✺

Tomas Machac - Alexandre Muller