Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: US Open, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 4 September 2026, Friday

Location: USTA Billie Jean King NTC (New York, NY)

Where to Watch on TV:


Czech-republic	HBO Max


	Tomas Martin Etcheverry		Mariano Navone

	1	2
	1.67	2.20	Watch
	1.70	2.10
	1.70	2.15
	1.78	2.18
	1.85	2	Watch
	1.75	2.15
	1.74	2.11	Watch
	1.70	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.74 ↓ (2.04)	2.13 ↑ (1.77)

The most likely Over/Under: 39.00

The best margin for this event is 2.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tomas Martin Etcheverry
55.1%

Mariano Navone
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.5%

53.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

46.7%

53.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tomas Martin Etcheverry has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tomas Martin Etcheverry's performance.

Mariano Navone has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mariano Navone might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tomas Martin Etcheverry than the current prediction. (-8.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tomas Martin Etcheverry that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mariano Navone than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mariano Navone could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.7%	0%	77.3%

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Mariano Navone Predictions

Users Predictions: 22 users predict this event. Etcheverry will win (votes: 5 - 22.7%). Navone will win (votes: 17 - 77.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Navone: 59.8% – 94.8%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Navone (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.5 Sets - over (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 34.5 Games - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:1

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Preview

Etcheverry is ranked ATP: 32. Navone is ranked ATP: 49.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Etcheverry may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Etcheverry won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Tomas Martin Etcheverry - the odds 2.04 are the expected chance of winning is 46.52%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tomas Martin Etcheverry
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Jacob Fearnley	3:1 ✺
30.08.26	Tomas Martin Etcheverry - Vit Kopriva	3:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Terence Atmane - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
ATP Montreal
05.08.26	Nuno Borges - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
ATP Washington
28.07.26	Brandon Nakashima - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.3 WWLLL
- Mariano Navone
ATP US Open
02.09.26	Matteo Berrettini - Mariano Navone	1:3 ✺
30.08.26	Mariano Navone - Novak Djokovic	3:2 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
25.08.26	James Duckworth - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
15.08.26	Alexander Blockx - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Mariano Navone - Raphael Collignon	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.7 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Challenger
09.11.22	Mariano Navone - Tomas Martin Etcheverry	0:2

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