Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Houston, clay - 1/8-finals

Date: 2 April 2025, Wednesday


	Tommy Paul		Christian Garin

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.35	3.1	Watch
	1.35	3	Watch
	1.35	3.15	Watch
	1.4	2.9	Watch
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.35	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.36 ↓ (1.47)	3.08 ↑ (2.65)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tommy Paul
69.4%

Christian Garin
30.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.4%

35.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64.1%

35.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tommy Paul has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Christian Garin has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tommy Paul than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tommy Paul that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Christian Garin than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Christian Garin could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Tommy Paul - Christian Garin Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Paul will win (votes: 6 - 66.7%). Garin will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Paul: 35.9% – 97.5%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Paul is ranked ATP: 13. Garin is ranked ATP: 133.

Recent matches Paul is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Garin is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Garin could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Paul is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Paul won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4:8 (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tommy Paul
ATP Miami
23.03.25	Francisco Cerundolo - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
21.03.25	Alexander Bublik - Tommy Paul	1:2 ✺
ATP Indian Wells
12.03.25	Tommy Paul - Daniil Medvedev	0:2 ✺
09.03.25	Tommy Paul - Cameron Norrie	2:0 ✺
07.03.25	Tommy Paul - Tristan Boyer	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LWLWW
- Christian Garin
ATP Houston
31.03.25	Christian Garin - Alexander Ritschard	2:0 ✺
ATP Challenger
22.03.25	Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues Alves - Christian Garin	2:1 ✺
21.03.25	Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
20.03.25	Petr Nesterov - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
18.03.25	Miguel Tobon - Christian Garin	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Roma
12.05.23	Christian Garin - Tommy Paul	2:1
ATP Roland Garros
24.05.22	Christian Garin - Tommy Paul	3:1
ATP Cincinnati
17.08.21	Christian Garin - Tommy Paul	1:2
ATP Challenger
23.01.18	Tommy Paul - Christian Garin	0:2

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