What is the expert prediction for Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul?

Our statistical model provides live predictions including win probabilities and estimated scores for Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul. Follow the link for detailed analytics.

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Jannik Sinner vs Tommy Paul Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Friday, May 16, 2025)

Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Rome, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	beIN Sports 1
Brazil	ESPN 2
Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Premier Sport 1
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+, MTV Urheilu 1
France	Eurosport 2
Germany	Sky Sport Tennis, Sky Sport Top Event
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 6
Hungary	Match 4
Netherlands	Ziggo Sport 4, Ziggo Sport
Poland	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Premium 1
Portugal	Sport TV6
Romania	Digi Sport 2, Prima Sport 5
Sweden	TV4 Play, TV4 Sport Live 1, TV4 Tennis
Ukraine	Setanta Sports Premium
United-kingdom	Sky Sports Tennis


	Jannik Sinner		Tommy Paul

	1	2
	1.1	7	Watch
	1.11	6.75	Watch
	1.1	7.2	Watch
	1.1	8.35
	1.11	7.09	Watch
	1.11	6.5	Watch
	1.09	7.2	Watch
	1.1	7.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.1 ↓ (1.1)	7.16 ↑ (6.17)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Jannik Sinner
86.7%

Tommy Paul
13.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

84.8%

15.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Jannik Sinner has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Tommy Paul has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	0%	15%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 20 users predict this event. Sinner will win (votes: 17 - 85%). Paul will win (votes: 3 - 15%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Sinner: 69.4% – 100%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

H/A, 2nd Set - Sinner (1.17) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Set - Sinner (1.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 Sets - Sinner (1.37) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH -5.5 Games - Sinner (1.88) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Jannik Sinner will win (6 of 7 users predict this - 85.71%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Sinner (votes: 11 - 91.7%). Paul (votes: 1 - 8.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Sinner is ranked ATP: 1. Paul is ranked ATP: 12.

Paul is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, Sinner is the obvious favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Sinner won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 8:3. (average 2:0.8).

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Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Jannik Sinner
ATP Roma
15.05.25	Jannik Sinner - Casper Ruud	2:0 ✺
13.05.25	Jannik Sinner - Francisco Cerundolo	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Jannik Sinner - Jesper De Jong	2:0 ✺
10.05.25	Jannik Sinner - Mariano Navone	2:0 ✺
ATP Australian Open
26.01.25	Jannik Sinner - Alexander Zverev	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWWWW
- Tommy Paul
ATP Roma
15.05.25	Hubert Hurkacz - Tommy Paul	0:2 ✺
13.05.25	Tommy Paul - Alex De Minaur	2:0 ✺
12.05.25	Tommy Paul - Tomas Machac	2:1 ✺
10.05.25	Tommy Paul - Roberto Bautista-Agut	2:0 ✺
ATP Madrid
30.04.25	Jack Draper - Tommy Paul	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
02.09.24	Jannik Sinner - Tommy Paul	3:0
ATP Toronto
12.08.23	Tommy Paul - Jannik Sinner	0:2
ATP Eastbourne
22.06.22	Tommy Paul - Jannik Sinner	2:1
ATP Madrid
02.05.22	Tommy Paul - Jannik Sinner	1:2