Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Basel, hard - 1/8-finals

Date: 23 October 2025, Thursday


	Valentin Royer		Denis Shapovalov

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.35	1.58	Watch
	2.4	1.64
	2.47	1.54	Watch
	2.4	1.6	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.4 ↓ (2.78)	1.59 ↑ (1.45)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Valentin Royer
39.8%

Denis Shapovalov
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

65.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.2%

67.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Valentin Royer has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Valentin Royer's performance.

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Denis Shapovalov might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valentin Royer than the current prediction. (-7.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Valentin Royer that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Denis Shapovalov could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
47.4%	0%	52.6%

Valentin Royer - Denis Shapovalov Predictions

Users Predictions: 19 users predict this event. Royer will win (votes: 9 - 47.4%). Shapovalov will win (votes: 10 - 52.6%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 30.1% – 75.1%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 11 Selected Experts predict this event. Royer (votes: 6 - 54.5%). Shapovalov (votes: 5 - 45.5%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5 Games - Shapovalov (1.78) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 12 Selected Experts predict this event. Royer (votes: 6 - 50%). Shapovalov (votes: 6 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Royer is ranked ATP: 69. Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 23.

Each of the players is struggling with stability in their game.

Royer may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Shapovalov could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Royer won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Valentin Royer
ATP Basel
21.10.25	Raphael Collignon - Valentin Royer	0:2 ✺
19.10.25	Valentin Royer - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Valentin Royer - Marc-Andrea Huesler	2:0 ✺
ATP Brussels
15.10.25	Benjamin Bonzi - Valentin Royer	2:1 ✺
14.10.25	Valentin Royer - Sebastian Baez	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWLW
- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Basel
21.10.25	Marcos Giron - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
21.10.25	Sebastian Baez - Denis Shapovalov	Canceled ✺
ATP Stockholm
18.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
17.10.25	Elias Ymer - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Leo Borg - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 W?LWW

Latest Head to Head

ATP US Open
28.08.25	Valentin Royer - Denis Shapovalov	1:3

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