Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Stockholm, hard - Semi-finals

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Max Sport 1
Czech-republic	Oneplay, Premier Sport 2
Denmark	TV2 Play, TV2 Sport X
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
Poland	Polsat Sport 3, Polsat Sport Premium 2
Romania	Prima Sport 4, Prima Sport PPV 2


	Denis Shapovalov		Casper Ruud

	1	2
	2.5	1.53	Watch
			Watch
	2.69	1.53
	2.26	1.63	Watch
	2.19	1.68	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.41 ↑ (2.26)	1.59 ↓ (1.63)

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Denis Shapovalov
39.8%

Casper Ruud
60.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.9%

58.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.3%

59.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Denis Shapovalov has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Casper Ruud has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Denis Shapovalov than the current prediction. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Casper Ruud than the current prediction. (-0.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.8%	0%	41.2%

Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Shapovalov will win (votes: 10 - 58.8%). Ruud will win (votes: 7 - 41.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Shapovalov: 35.4% – 82.2%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Ruud (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Ruud (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Shapovalov (votes: 4 - 50%). Ruud (votes: 4 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Shapovalov is ranked ATP: 23. Ruud is ranked ATP: 12.

Both players have been playing unpredictably.

Shapovalov may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Ruud could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Shapovalov won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Casper Ruud - the odds 1.63 are the expected chance of winning is 58.1%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Denis Shapovalov
ATP Stockholm
17.10.25	Elias Ymer - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Leo Borg - Denis Shapovalov	1:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
06.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Jiri Lehecka	0:2 ✺
04.10.25	Denis Shapovalov - Christopher OConnell	2:0 ✺
ATP Tokyo
24.09.25	Daniel Altmaier - Denis Shapovalov	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WWLWL
- Casper Ruud
ATP Stockholm
17.10.25	Sebastian Korda - Casper Ruud	1:2 ✺
15.10.25	Marin Cilic - Casper Ruud	0:2 ✺
ATP Shanghai
03.10.25	Zizou Bergs - Casper Ruud	Ruud C. retired ✺
ATP Tokyo
29.09.25	Carlos Alcaraz Garfia - Casper Ruud	2:1 ✺
28.09.25	Casper Ruud - Aleksandar Vukic	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 WW?LW

Latest Head to Head

ATP Dallas
09.02.25	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	2:0
ATP Roma
13.05.22	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	0:2
ATP Geneva
22.05.21	Casper Ruud - Denis Shapovalov	2:0
ATP Roma
10.05.21	Denis Shapovalov - Casper Ruud	Canceled

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