Match Info

WTA - SINGLES: Indian Wells, hard - 1/64-finals

Date: 5 March 2026, Thursday


	Varvara Gracheva		Lilli Tagger

	1	2
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.67	2.21	Watch
	1.71	2.25
	1.67	2.2	Watch
	1.62	2.3
	1.68	2.22	Watch
	1.46	2.63
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↑ (1.46)	2.29 ↓ (2.63)

The best margin for this event is 2.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Varvara Gracheva
58.2%

Lilli Tagger
41.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.3%

35.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

69.8%

30.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Varvara Gracheva has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Varvara Gracheva's form might have worsened.

Lilli Tagger has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lilli Tagger's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Varvara Gracheva than the current prediction. (+11.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Varvara Gracheva, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lilli Tagger than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lilli Tagger, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
53.8%	0%	46.2%

Varvara Gracheva - Lilli Tagger Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Gracheva will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). Tagger will win (votes: 6 - 46.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Gracheva: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Gracheva (votes: 2 - 50%). Tagger (votes: 2 - 50%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 Games - Tagger (2.38) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 Sets - Tagger (1.51) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Gracheva (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Tagger (votes: 4 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Gracheva is ranked WTA: 58. Tagger is ranked WTA: 119.

Recent performances by Gracheva have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Tagger is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Gracheva may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Gracheva could have a small edge in this match.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Varvara Gracheva
WTA Austin
23.02.26	Taylor Townsend - Varvara Gracheva	Canceled ✺
WTA Dubai
17.02.26	Varvara Gracheva - Jessica Pegula	0:2 ✺
16.02.26	Varvara Gracheva - Rebecca Sramkova	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Magdalena Frech - Varvara Gracheva	1:2 ✺
13.02.26	Priscilla Hon - Varvara Gracheva	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 ?LWWW
- Lilli Tagger
ATP Challenger
08.02.26	Mananchaya Sawangkaew - Lilli Tagger	2:0 ✺
07.02.26	Fangran Tian - Lilli Tagger	0:2 ✺
06.02.26	Lilli Tagger - Darja Semenistaja	2:1 ✺
05.02.26	Lilli Tagger - Eri Shimizu	2:0 ✺
03.02.26	Lilli Tagger - Vaishnavi Adkar	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.2 LWWWW

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