Match Info

CHALLENGER MEN - SINGLES: Menorca - Qualification, clay - Semi-finals

Date: 30 March 2026, Monday


	Yaroslav Demin		Michael Vrbensky

	1	2
			Watch
	1.95	1.75	Watch
	2.06	1.8
	2.01	1.71	Watch
	2	1.73	Watch
	1.98	1.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2 ↓ (2.05)	1.74 ↑ (1.68)

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Yaroslav Demin
46.6%

Michael Vrbensky
53.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

45%

55%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

56.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yaroslav Demin has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Michael Vrbensky has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yaroslav Demin than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Michael Vrbensky than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
35.7%	0%	64.3%

Yaroslav Demin - Michael Vrbensky Predictions

Users Predictions: 14 users predict this event. Demin will win (votes: 5 - 35.7%). Vrbensky will win (votes: 9 - 64.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Vrbensky: 39.2% – 89.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Demin (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Vrbensky (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

#ad

Preview

Demin is ranked ATP: 699. Vrbensky is ranked ATP: 568.

Demin has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Vrbensky's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Demin may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both players are almost equally likely to win.

The players have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yaroslav Demin
ITF Tournaments
24.03.26	Yaroslav Demin - Alex Marti Pujolras	1:2 ✺
17.03.26	Yaroslav Demin - Maks Kasnikowski	0:2 ✺
20.02.26	Yaroslav Demin - Thijs Boogaard	0:2 ✺
19.02.26	Yaroslav Demin - Hazem Naw	2:0 ✺
17.02.26	Yaroslav Demin - Pieter De Lange	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 LLLWW
- Michael Vrbensky
ATP Challenger
22.03.26	Denis Yevseyev - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
16.03.26	Christoph Negritu - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
15.03.26	Andrew Paulson - Michael Vrbensky	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Michael Vrbensky - Laurent Lokoli	1:2 ✺
16.02.26	Matej Dodig - Michael Vrbensky	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLWLL

Yaroslav Demin - Michael Vrbensky: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide