Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Tokyo, hard - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday


	Yosuke Watanuki		Nuno Borges

	1	2
	2.38	1.57	Watch
			Watch
	2.32	1.59
	2.38	1.65
	1.76	2.07	Watch
	2.4	1.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.25 ↓ (2.5)	1.69 ↑ (1.5)

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Yosuke Watanuki
43%

Nuno Borges
57%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.4%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.6%

64.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Yosuke Watanuki has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Yosuke Watanuki's performance.

Nuno Borges has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Nuno Borges might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-7.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Yosuke Watanuki that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Nuno Borges than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Nuno Borges could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
72.7%	0%	27.3%

Yosuke Watanuki - Nuno Borges Predictions

Users Predictions: 11 users predict this event. Watanuki will win (votes: 8 - 72.7%). Borges will win (votes: 3 - 27.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Watanuki: 46.4% – 99%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. Watanuki (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Borges (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Preview

Watanuki is ranked ATP: 150. Borges is ranked ATP: 51.

The current form of both players is below expectations.

Borges may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Borges might have a minor edge in this game.

Recently, the players have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Challenger
03.09.25	Rio Noguchi - Yosuke Watanuki	2:0 ✺
ATP US Open
18.08.25	Christian Garin - Yosuke Watanuki	2:0 ✺
ATP Cincinnati
05.08.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Dalibor Svrcina	0:2 ✺
ATP Toronto
30.07.25	Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
28.07.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.5 LLLLW
- Nuno Borges
Davis Cup World Group I
13.09.25	Ignacio Buse - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
12.09.25	Gonzalo Bueno - Nuno Borges	2:1 ✺
ATP US Open
28.08.25	Nuno Borges - Tommy Paul	2:3 ✺
26.08.25	Nuno Borges - Brandon Holt	3:0 ✺
ATP Winston-Salem
18.08.25	Nuno Borges - Kamil Majchrzak	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.3 LLLWL

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