Match Info

ATP - SINGLES: Toronto, hard - 1/32-finals

Date: 30 July 2025, Wednesday


	Francis Tiafoe		Yosuke Watanuki

	1	2
	1.36	3.2	Watch
	1.33	3.25	Watch
	1.34	3.14
	1.38	3.3
	1.36	3.20	Watch
	1.3	3.5	Watch
	1.37	3.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.35 ↑ (1.3)	3.25 ↑ (3.07)

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Francis Tiafoe
70.7%

Yosuke Watanuki
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

75.7%

24.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Francis Tiafoe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.4%)

Yosuke Watanuki has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Francis Tiafoe than the current prediction. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Yosuke Watanuki than the current prediction. (-5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
70.6%	0%	29.4%

Francis Tiafoe - Yosuke Watanuki Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Tiafoe will win (votes: 12 - 70.6%). Watanuki will win (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Tiafoe: 48.9% – 92.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +3.5 Games - Watanuki (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 9.5 Games, 1st Set - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Yosuke Watanuki will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 5 Selected Experts predict this event. Tiafoe (votes: 1 - 20%). Watanuki (votes: 4 - 80%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Preview

Tiafoe is ranked ATP: 12. Watanuki is ranked ATP: 158.

Tiafoe has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Watanuki is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Watanuki may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tiafoe is a strong favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Tiafoe won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:3. (average 1:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Francis Tiafoe
ATP Washington
25.07.25	Ben Shelton - Francis Tiafoe	2:0 ✺
24.07.25	Flavio Cobolli - Francis Tiafoe	0:2 ✺
23.07.25	Aleksandar Kovacevic - Francis Tiafoe	1:2 ✺
ATP Wimbledon
02.07.25	Cameron Norrie - Francis Tiafoe	3:1 ✺
30.06.25	Elmer Moller - Francis Tiafoe	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 LWWLW
- Yosuke Watanuki
ATP Toronto
28.07.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Daniel Altmaier	2:1 ✺
26.07.25	Dalibor Svrcina - Yosuke Watanuki	1:2 ✺
ATP Washington
20.07.25	Zachary Svajda - Yosuke Watanuki	2:1 ✺
20.07.25	Jake Fellows - Yosuke Watanuki	0:2 ✺
ATP Challenger
17.07.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Yuta Shimizu	Shimizu Y. walkover ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.1 WWLW?

Latest Head to Head

ATP Indian Wells
09.03.25	Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe	2:0
ATP Miami
25.03.23	Yosuke Watanuki - Francis Tiafoe	1:2

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