Match Info

A1 - Play Offs - Quarter-finals

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday


	Posillipo		Trieste

	1	X	2
	2	6.81	2.3
	1.9	7.5	2.2
	1.95	7.3	2.2
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↓ (2)	7.2 ↑ (6)	2.23 ↓ (2.25)

The most likely Over/Under: 26.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-1)

The best margin for this event is 8.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Posillipo
46.6%

Draw
12.6%

Trieste
40.7%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

45%

15%

40%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.6%

15.5%

41.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Posillipo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

Trieste has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Posillipo than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Trieste than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Posillipo - Trieste Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 14:14

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Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Posillipo won 1.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Posillipo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

In the last 19 head-to-head matches, Posillipo won 6 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 172:190. (average 9.1:10).

Including home matches between the teams, Posillipo won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 84:83. (average 9.3:9.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Pts
2	Trieste	2	2	0	0	41:32	6
5	Posillipo	2	1	0	1	26:27	3

Outrights of Italian A1 Water Polo for now

Posillipo: 3.22% Trieste: 2.7%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CN Posillipo
Italian A1 Water Polo
16.05.26	Posillipo - Ortigia	12:9 ✺
06.05.26	Savona - Posillipo	16:14 ✺
29.04.26	Posillipo - Florentia	12:3 ✺
18.04.26	Quinto - Posillipo	13:11 ✺
14.04.26	Posillipo - Telimar Palermo	17:7 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 WLWLW
- Trieste Pallanuoto
Italian A1 Water Polo
15.05.26	Trieste - Brescia	12:19 ✺
09.05.26	Olympic Roma - Trieste	10:14 ✺
29.04.26	Trieste - Roma Vis Nova	21:19 penalties ✺
18.04.26	Ortigia - Trieste	11:12 ✺
15.04.26	Trieste - Savona	17:19 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.6 LWWWL

Latest Head to Head

Italian A1 Water Polo
28.02.26	Trieste - Posillipo	15:9
22.10.25	Posillipo - Trieste	13:11
08.02.25	Trieste - Posillipo	14:8
25.10.24	Posillipo - Trieste	8:8
06.12.23	Trieste - Posillipo	14:7
06.05.23	Posillipo - Trieste	7:9
03.05.23	Trieste - Posillipo	11:10

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