Match Info

USA: NFL - ROUND 11

Date: 20 November 2022, Sunday

Location: Ford Field (Detroit)


	Buffalo Bills		Cleveland Browns

	1	2
	1.27	3.9	Watch
	1.28	3.75
	1.27	4
	1.27	3.8
	1.29	3.89
	1.27	4.05	Watch
	1.27	3.88
	1.25	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.27 ↓ (1.33)	3.85 ↑ (3.31)

The most likely Over/Under: 50.00

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Buffalo Bills
75.2%

Cleveland Browns
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

71.3%

28.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.9%

34.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Buffalo Bills has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.9%)

Cleveland Browns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Buffalo Bills than the current prediction. (-9.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Buffalo Bills that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cleveland Browns than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cleveland Browns could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
84.8%	0%	15.2%

Buffalo Bills - Cleveland Browns Predictions

Users Predictions: Buffalo Bills will win (28 of 33 users predict this - 84.85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 72.62% – 97.08%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 29:21

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Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 4 and 12).

Buffalo has currently - 6-3, has a good chance of playoffs (92%), has a chance of win division (48%), has a chance of 1st-round bye (20%).

Cleveland has currently - 3-6, has a small chance of playoffs (8%), has a very small chance of win division (2%), has a very small chance of 1st-round bye (<0.1%).

This event has quality 68, small importance 28, match rating 48. (0-100) (fivethirtyeight.com)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Buffalo won 4.

Recent matches Buffalo is playing shaky (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Cleveland is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Buffalo could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Buffalo is a favorite.

Last 7 head-to-head matches Buffalo won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 153-120.

Including matches at home between the teams Buffalo won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 59-23.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Buffalo Bills
NFL
13.11.22	Buffalo Bills - Minnesota Vikings	30:33 OT ✺
06.11.22	New York Jets - Buffalo Bills	20:17 ✺
30.10.22	Buffalo Bills - Green Bay Packers	27:17 ✺
16.10.22	Kansas City Chiefs - Buffalo Bills	20:24 ✺
09.10.22	Buffalo Bills - Pittsburgh Steelers	38:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 LLWWW
- Cleveland Browns
NFL
13.11.22	Miami Dolphins - Cleveland Browns	39:17 ✺
31.10.22	Cleveland Browns - Cincinnati Bengals	32:13 ✺
23.10.22	Baltimore Ravens - Cleveland Browns	23:20 ✺
16.10.22	Cleveland Browns - New England Patriots	15:38 ✺
09.10.22	Cleveland Browns - Los Angeles Chargers	28:30 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

NFL
10.11.19	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	19:16
17.08.18	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	17:19
18.12.16	Buffalo Bills - Cleveland Browns	33:13
20.08.15	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	10:11
30.11.14	Buffalo Bills - Cleveland Browns	26:10
03.10.13	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	37:24
23.09.12	Cleveland Browns - Buffalo Bills	14:24

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