Match Info

AFL - Round 8

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Marvel Stadium (Melbourne)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL


	Carlton Blues		St Kilda Saints

	1	2
	2.35	1.6
	2.35	1.5
			Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↓ (2.5)	1.55 ↑ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 180.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-8)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carlton Blues
39.7%

St Kilda Saints
60.3%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

38.1%

61.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40.7%

59.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

St Kilda Saints has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for St Kilda Saints than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. St Kilda will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 86:94

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (16 - 21)
01:26, Sharman C. (G),
02:55, Owens M. (Behind),
06:15, Kemp B. (G),
07:57, McKay H. (Behind),
10:19, Evans F. (Behind),
14:02, Smith J. (Behind),
15:03, Kemp B. (Behind),
16:02, Garcia H. (Behind),
17:05, Wanganeen-Milera N. (Behind),
19:10, Marshall R. (G),
20:52, Evans F. (G),
25:08, De Koning T. (G),
2nd Quarter (33 - 16)
00:48, Sharman C. (Behind),
03:32, Caminiti A. (Behind),
04:50, Kemp B. (G),
07:45, Cripps P. (G),
09:46, Carroll M. (G),
12:05, Owens M. (G),
13:55, Kemp B. (Behind),
15:05, McGovern M. (G),
19:46, Ainsworth B. (Behind),
22:42, Ainsworth B. (G),
24:32, Marshall R. (G),
26:20, (Behind Rushed),
28:28, Sharman C. (Behind),
29:55, Williams Z. (Behind),
3rd Quarter (10 - 52)
00:15, McGovern M. (Behind),
01:44, McGovern M. (Behind),
04:19, (Behind Rushed),
07:22, Hill B. (G),
09:56, Sharman C. (G),
11:36, Owens M. (Behind),
13:05, Phillipou M. (Behind),
14:25, Hayward W. (Behind),
15:24, Owens M. (G),
19:40, Henry L. (G),
20:41, Henry L. (G),
22:58, Wood M. (G),
24:46, Marshall R. (G),
26:56, De Koning T. (G),
29:05, Wood M. (Behind),
30:14, Ainsworth B. (G),
32:12, Sharman C. (Behind),
4th Quarter (10 - 19)
01:16, Kemp B. (Behind),
03:00, McKay H. (Behind),
09:27, Henry L. (G),
13:33, Wanganeen-Milera N. (G),
16:13, Evans F. (Behind),
23:54, Owens M. (G),
25:22, Kemp B. (G),
26:34, (Behind Rushed),
27:14, (Behind Rushed),

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 16 and 13).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 2.

Carlton is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

In recent matches, St Kilda has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

St Kilda may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

St Kilda will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that St Kilda will win today's game, with odds of 1.46.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Carlton won 9 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 11 matches, and goals 1610:1694. (average 80.5:84.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Carlton won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 875:968. (average 79.5:88).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carlton Blues
AFL
25.04.26	Fremantle Dockers - Carlton Blues	103:89 ✺
16.04.26	Carlton Blues - Collingwood Magpies	83:88 ✺
09.04.26	Adelaide Crows - Carlton Blues	114:86 ✺
03.04.26	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Carlton Blues	96:86 ✺
29.03.26	Carlton Blues - Melbourne Demons	77:100 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- St Kilda Saints
AFL
25.04.26	St Kilda Saints - West Coast Eagles	143:42 ✺
18.04.26	Adelaide Crows - St Kilda Saints	103:102 ✺
12.04.26	Port Adelaide Power - St Kilda Saints	67:81 ✺
27.03.26	St Kilda Saints - Brisbane Lions	80:113 ✺
21.03.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - St Kilda Saints	74:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WLWLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL
09.05.25	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	62:77
25.08.24	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	74:76
06.08.23	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	54:73
23.04.23	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	60:82
01.07.22	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	78:93
30.07.21	St Kilda Saints - Carlton Blues	81:112
AAMI Community Series
04.03.21	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	99:125

Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide