Match Info

AFL Women - Round 8

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: GMHBA Stadium (Geelong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 4


	Geelong Cats		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	1.62	2.3
	1.52	2.3
	1.55	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↑ (1.48)	2.33 ↓ (2.53)

The most likely Over/Under: 75.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-5)

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Geelong Cats
59.9%

Carlton Blues
40.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

63%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

64%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Cats has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.1%)

Carlton Blues has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 41:36

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (6 - 18)
2nd Quarter (15 - 14)
3rd Quarter (15 - 8)
4th Quarter (1 - 15)

Preview

Recent performances by Geelong have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Carlton is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Geelong could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Geelong won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 72:138. (average 18:34.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Geelong won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 36:45. (average 18:22.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Cats Women
AFL Women
25.09.25	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	35:42 ✺
19.09.25	Port Adelaide Power - Geelong Cats	40:45 ✺
13.09.25	Richmond Tigers - Geelong Cats	29:59 ✺
07.09.25	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	27:58 ✺
30.08.25	Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans	45:50 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LWWWL
- Carlton Blues Women
AFL Women
26.09.25	Carlton Blues - Fremantle Dockers	32:23 ✺
20.09.25	North Melbourne Kangaroos - Carlton Blues	79:26 ✺
13.09.25	Carlton Blues - Gold Coast Suns	71:25 ✺
06.09.25	Carlton Blues - Western Bulldogs	49:33 ✺
31.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	44:58 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
14.09.24	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	29:5
15.01.22	Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues	17:31
06.03.21	Carlton Blues - Geelong Cats	64:31
23.02.19	Geelong Cats - Carlton Blues	19:14

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