Match Info

AFL Women - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 22 November 2025, Saturday

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 4


	Brisbane Lions		Carlton Blues

	1	2
	1.31	3.5
	1.32	3
			Watch
	1.35	3.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.33 ↓ (1.35)	3.25 ↑ (2.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 91.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-13)

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Lions
71%

Carlton Blues
29%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

68.2%

31.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

92.5%

7.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Lions has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Carlton Blues has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brisbane Lions than the current prediction. (+21.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Brisbane Lions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carlton Blues than the current prediction. (-21.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Carlton Blues, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Brisbane will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Brisbane (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 53:40

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (3 - 6)
2nd Quarter (20 - 12)
3rd Quarter (37 - 6)
4th Quarter (7 - 8)

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 2.

Brisbane is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Carlton is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

Carlton may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Brisbane is a strong favorite.

We predict that Brisbane will win today's game, with odds of 1.33.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Brisbane won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 294:241. (average 42:34.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 107:86. (average 53.5:43).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Lions Women
AFL Women
08.11.25	Melbourne Demons - Brisbane Lions	43:56 ✺
01.11.25	Collingwood Magpies - Brisbane Lions	32:52 ✺
25.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Melbourne Demons	45:36 ✺
18.10.25	Essendon Bombers - Brisbane Lions	16:54 ✺
11.10.25	Brisbane Lions - Port Adelaide Power	62:33 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.7 WWWWW
- Carlton Blues Women
AFL Women
15.11.25	Hawthorn Hawks - Carlton Blues	33:79 ✺
07.11.25	Carlton Blues - West Coast Eagles	60:19 ✺
31.10.25	West Coast Eagles - Carlton Blues	22:42 ✺
26.10.25	Carlton Blues - Greater Western Sydney Giants	81:35 ✺
18.10.25	Carlton Blues - St Kilda Saints	36:49 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WWWWL

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
31.08.25	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	44:58
05.10.24	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	13:68
25.01.22	Brisbane Lions - Carlton Blues	63:28
21.03.20	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	44:15
10.03.19	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	43:27
17.02.18	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	18:40
19.03.17	Carlton Blues - Brisbane Lions	37:37

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