Match Info

AFL Women - Round 4

Date: 7 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Windy Hill (Essendon)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL
United-kingdom	Discovery+, TNT Sports 3


	Essendon Bombers		Geelong Cats

	1	2
	2.55	1.52
	2.55	1.45
	2.65	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↑ (2.18)	1.48 ↓ (1.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 70.50

The most likely Handicap: 2 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Essendon Bombers
36.4%

Geelong Cats
63.6%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.5%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Essendon Bombers has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Essendon Bombers's form might have worsened.

Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Geelong Cats's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	0%	33.3%

Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Essendon will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Geelong will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Geelong (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 34:36

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (6 - 17)
2nd Quarter (6 - 14)
3rd Quarter (9 - 13)
4th Quarter (6 - 14)

Preview

Geelong will hold a modest advantage in this match.

We predict that Essendon will win today's game, with odds of 2.47.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Essendon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 90:113. (average 30:37.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Essendon won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 57:62. (average 28.5:31).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Essendon Bombers Women
AFL Women
29.08.25	Richmond Tigers - Essendon Bombers	28:43 ✺
24.08.25	Essendon Bombers - West Coast Eagles	31:26 ✺
16.08.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Essendon Bombers	29:85 ✺
09.11.24	Fremantle Dockers - Essendon Bombers	36:26 ✺
02.11.24	Carlton Blues - Essendon Bombers	24:60 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.2 WWWLW
- Geelong Cats Women
AFL Women
30.08.25	Geelong Cats - Sydney Swans	45:50 ✺
24.08.25	Adelaide Crows - Geelong Cats	65:27 ✺
16.08.25	Geelong Cats - North Melbourne Kangaroos	21:51 ✺
01.11.24	Geelong Cats - Adelaide Crows	28:32 ✺
26.10.24	West Coast Eagles - Geelong Cats	23:56 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.1 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
11.11.23	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	51:33
07.10.23	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	29:19
08.10.22	Essendon Bombers - Geelong Cats	28:43

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