Match Info

AFL Women - Round 7

Date: 24 September 2026, Thursday

Location: GMHBA Stadium (Geelong)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL TV, Fox Sports 505
United-kingdom	HBO Max, TNT Sports 1
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus, FOX Sports 2


	Geelong Cats		Hawthorn Hawks

	1	X	2
	1.65		2.25
	1.6		2.15
	1.58		2.18
	1.62		2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.85)	↓	2.21 ↑ (1.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 95.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-2)

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Geelong Cats
57.8%

Hawthorn Hawks
42.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.7%

1.8%

48.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

68.8%

1.3%

35%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Geelong Cats has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Geelong Cats's performance.

Hawthorn Hawks has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Hawthorn Hawks might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Geelong Cats than the current prediction. (+11%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Geelong Cats, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hawthorn Hawks than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hawthorn Hawks, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks Predictions

Users Predictions: 2 users predict this event. Geelong will win (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 49:47

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (31 - 6)
2nd Quarter (17 - 0)
3rd Quarter (15 - 14)
4th Quarter (19 - 26)

Preview

Geelong has enjoyed a winning run and is in top form (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Hawthorn is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

Our forecast points to a victory for Geelong in today's match, at odds of 1.73.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Geelong has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 156:141 (averaging 52:47 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Geelong against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 156:141 goals (averaging 52:47 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		%%	Pts
2	Geelong Cats W	10	9	0	1	719:430	167.21	36
10	Hawthorn Hawks W	10	5	0	5	461:454	101.54	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Geelong Cats Women
AFL Women
18.09.26	Collingwood Magpies - Geelong Cats	49:90 ✺
12.09.26	Adelaide Crows - Geelong Cats	46:57 ✺
06.09.26	Geelong Cats - Essendon Bombers	83:51 ✺
30.08.26	Gold Coast Suns - Geelong Cats	57:64 ✺
22.08.26	Geelong Cats - St Kilda Saints	100:15 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WWWWW
- Hawthorn Hawks Women
AFL Women
18.09.26	Hawthorn Hawks - North Melbourne Kangaroos	32:25 ✺
11.09.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Western Bulldogs	41:30 ✺
05.09.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Adelaide Crows	39:67 ✺
30.08.26	Collingwood Magpies - Hawthorn Hawks	26:54 ✺
23.08.26	Port Adelaide Power - Hawthorn Hawks	33:65 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.3 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

AFL Women
25.09.25	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	35:42
26.09.24	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	61:79
04.11.23	Geelong Cats - Hawthorn Hawks	60:20

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