Match Info

AFL - Round 8

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: People First Stadium (Gold Coast)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	AFL, Fox Footy


	Gold Coast Suns		Greater Western Sydney Giants

	1	2
	1.58	2.4
	1.55	2.3
			Watch
	1.35	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.49 ↑ (1.31)	2.55 ↓ (3.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 184.50

The most likely Handicap: 1 (-9)

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Gold Coast Suns
63.1%

Greater Western Sydney Giants
36.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

72.8%

27.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.3%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Gold Coast Suns has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Gold Coast Suns's form might have worsened.

Greater Western Sydney Giants has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Greater Western Sydney Giants's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gold Coast Suns than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Greater Western Sydney Giants than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Gold Coast Suns - Greater Western Sydney Giants Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 97:88

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Key Events of the Match

1st Quarter (22 - 13)
01:42, Powell W. (G),
04:11, Powell W. (Behind),
05:28, Aleer L. (Behind),
06:32, Petracca C. (G),
11:57, Anderson N. (G),
13:41, Clohesy S. (Behind),
14:15, (Behind Rushed),
15:47, Hogan J. (Behind),
19:47, Cadman A. (Behind),
20:48, Coniglio S. (Behind),
22:45, Greene T. (Behind),
24:03, (Behind Rushed),
24:59, Cadman A. (G),
26:18, Oliver C. (Behind),
26:46, Lombard L. (Behind),
2nd Quarter (10 - 15)
02:10, Humphrey B. (Behind),
03:45, Humphrey B. (Behind),
04:56, Petracca C. (Behind),
09:38, Angwin R. (Behind),
11:17, Aleer L. (Behind),
13:40, Cadman A. (G),
18:44, Gothard P. (G),
21:40, (Behind Rushed),
25:12, O'Halloran X. (Behind),
26:39, King B. (G),
3rd Quarter (29 - 15)
01:42, King B. (Behind),
03:03, (Behind Rushed),
03:37, Ugle-Hagan J. (G),
07:11, Himmelberg H. (Behind),
10:04, Petracca C. (G),
13:33, Ugle-Hagan J. (G),
14:55, Gothard P. (G),
16:40, Andrew M. (Behind),
17:39, Read E. (Behind),
19:22, Hogan J. (Behind),
23:42, Hogan J. (G),
26:14, Noble J. (G),
28:24, Greene T. (Behind),
29:54, (Behind Rushed),
4th Quarter (22 - 20)
03:08, King B. (G),
07:17, Humphrey B. (Behind),
08:09, Stringer J. (G),
13:10, Jeffrey J. (G),
14:31, Bedford T. (G),
16:12, Clohesy S. (Behind),
16:59, (Behind Rushed),
21:14, Ugle-Hagan J. (G),
22:30, (Behind Rushed),
23:47, Hogan J. (Behind),
25:19, Greene T. (G),
27:37, Ugle-Hagan J. (Behind),

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ AFL (Play Offs: ) and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 0.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Gold Coast may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Gold Coast has had a series of away games.

Gold Coast could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Gold Coast won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 18 matches, and goals 1320:2150. (average 66:107.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Gold Coast won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 552:696. (average 78.9:99.4).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Gold Coast Suns
AFL
24.04.26	Hawthorn Hawks - Gold Coast Suns	112:63 ✺
17.04.26	Gold Coast Suns - Essendon Bombers	119:110 ✺
11.04.26	Sydney Swans - Gold Coast Suns	100:68 ✺
05.04.26	Melbourne Demons - Gold Coast Suns	109:89 ✺
20.03.26	Richmond Tigers - Gold Coast Suns	60:128 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LWLLW
- Greater Western Sydney Giants
AFL
26.04.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - North Melbourne Kangaroos	105:98 ✺
17.04.26	Sydney Swans - Greater Western Sydney Giants	107:66 ✺
12.04.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Richmond Tigers	131:75 ✺
27.03.26	Collingwood Magpies - Greater Western Sydney Giants	87:54 ✺
21.03.26	Greater Western Sydney Giants - St Kilda Saints	74:78 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

AFL
15.08.25	Gold Coast Suns - Greater Western Sydney Giants	76:111
21.06.25	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	106:99
19.07.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	89:50
06.04.24	Gold Coast Suns - Greater Western Sydney Giants	89:117
AAMI Community Series
29.02.24	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	105:61
AFL
22.07.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	103:63
AAMI Community Series
03.03.23	Greater Western Sydney Giants - Gold Coast Suns	122:77

Gold Coast Suns - Greater Western Sydney Giants: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide